Report
Valens Research

CAR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 06 06

Avis Budget Group (CAR:USA) is currently trading near historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.5x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management has concerns about productivity, pricing, and volumes

Specifically, management may be concerned about SRS Investment Management intending to nominate five candidates to the board at their upcoming annual meeting, and may lack confidence in the sustainability of productivity improvements. Furthermore, they may be exaggerating their satisfaction with their financial rebound in the second half of the year, and may be overstating the impact that their Demand Fleet Pricing system had during the strong Thanksgiving and Christmas season. Moreover, they may be concerned about their expectation for relatively weak pricing, and may lack confidence in the sustainability of leisure volume improvements
Underlying
Avis Budget Group Inc.

Avis Budget Group is a provider of mobility solutions through its three brands, Avis, Budget and Zipcar, together with several other brands. The company has two segments: Americas, which provides and licenses the company's brands to third parties for vehicle rentals and ancillary products and services in North America, South America, Central America and the Caribbean, and operates its car sharing business in certain of these markets; and International, which provides and licenses the company's brands to third parties for vehicle rentals and ancillary products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Australasia, and operates the company's car sharing business in certain of these markets.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch