Report
Valens Research

AVP - Valens Credit Report - 2017 12 18

- Credit markets are grossly overstating credit risk with a CDS of 980bps and a cash bond YTW of 9.747%, relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 529bps and an Intrinsic YTW of 7.127%. Additionally, Moody's is materially overstating AVP's fundamental credit risk, with their B1 credit rating five notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) rating - Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that management's compensation framework focuses them on all three value drivers, which should lead to higher cash flows available for servicing obligations. Moreover, management members have low change-in-control compensation, limiting event risk for creditors

- AVP is currently trading at historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.5x Uniform P/B (V/A'). However, even at these levels, the market appears to be pricing in the best-case scenario for operational improvement, suggesting fundamental-driven equity upside is likely limited. That said, with elevated credit risk likely pressuring valuation multiples, there is the potential for material credit-driven equity upside should market perception of the firm's credit risk improve

Underlying
Avon Products Inc.

Avon Products is a manufacturer and marketer of beauty and related products. The company's product categories are Beauty and Fashion and Home. Beauty consists of skincare, fragrance and color (cosmetics). Fashion and Home consists of fashion jewelry, watches, apparel, footwear, accessories, gift and decorative products, housewares, entertainment and leisure products, children's products and nutritional products. The company's business is conducted primarily in one channel, direct selling. The company's reportable segments are based on geographic operations in four regions: Europe, Middle East & Africa; South Latin America; North Latin America; and Asia Pacific.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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