- Credit markets are grossly overstating credit risk with a CDS of 980bps and a cash bond YTW of 9.747%, relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 529bps and an Intrinsic YTW of 7.127%. Additionally, Moody's is materially overstating AVP's fundamental credit risk, with their B1 credit rating five notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) rating - Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that management's compensation framework focuses them on all three value drivers, which should lead to higher cash flows available for servicing obligations. Moreover, management members have low change-in-control compensation, limiting event risk for creditors
- AVP is currently trading at historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.5x Uniform P/B (V/A'). However, even at these levels, the market appears to be pricing in the best-case scenario for operational improvement, suggesting fundamental-driven equity upside is likely limited. That said, with elevated credit risk likely pressuring valuation multiples, there is the potential for material credit-driven equity upside should market perception of the firm's credit risk improve
Avon Products is a manufacturer and marketer of beauty and related products. The company's product categories are Beauty and Fashion and Home. Beauty consists of skincare, fragrance and color (cosmetics). Fashion and Home consists of fashion jewelry, watches, apparel, footwear, accessories, gift and decorative products, housewares, entertainment and leisure products, children's products and nutritional products. The company's business is conducted primarily in one channel, direct selling. The company's reportable segments are based on geographic operations in four regions: Europe, Middle East & Africa; South Latin America; North Latin America; and Asia Pacific.
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