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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 07 18

FIS currently trades near recent highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a Uniform P/E of 21.9x. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to remain near current 55% levels going forward, accompanied by 5% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to improve to 57%-58% in 2018-2019, accompanied by 10% Uniform Asset growth. However, management has concerns about their margins, initiatives, and demand, suggesting these bullish expectations are too optimistic. Should FIS fail to sustain profitability near all-time highs, as management sentiment suggests, equity downside would likely be warranted.


COST Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about growth and market trends

MCO Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a slight fade in Uniform ROA, and management appears concerned about growth, revenue deferrals, and the Bureau van Dijk acquisition

SAVE Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for further Uniform ROA declines, and management has concerns about costs, industry trends, and their PBS initiative

AXL, BZH, FDX, HUM, LUV, PANW, PKD, ROST, STZ, SYY, UNFI, WBA, YRCW
Underlyings
AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HLDGS

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is a supplier to the automotive industry. The company designs, engineers and manufactures driveline and metal forming products. The company's business is organized into Driveline and Metal Forming segments. Driveline products consist primarily of front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems. Metal Forming products consist primarily of axle and transmission shafts, ring and pinion gears, differential gears and assemblies, connecting rods and variable valve timing products.

Beazer Homes USA Inc.

Beazer Homes USA is engaged as a homebuilder. The company's homebuilding operations consist of the design, sale, and construction of single-family and multi-family homes. The company purchases land or obtains an option to purchase land, which, in either case, requires certain site improvements prior to home construction. When available in certain markets, the company also buys finished lots that are ready for home construction. The company has investments with land developers, other homebuilders and financial partners to acquire land positions, to manage its risk profile and to utilize its capital base. The company also acts as the general contractor for the construction of its new home communities.

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

FedEx Corporation

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce and business services through companies under the FedEx brand. These companies are included in the following segments: Federal Express Corporation, including TNT Express B.V., is an express transportation company; FedEx Ground Package System, Inc., which is a provider of small-package ground delivery services; FedEx Freight Corporation, which is a provider of less-than-truckload freight services; and FedEx Corporate Services, Inc., which provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collections services, and certain back-office functions.

Fidelity National Information Services Inc.

Fidelity National Information Services is a provider of technology solutions for merchants, banks, and capital markets firms globally. The company's solutions include merchant acquiring solutions; payment solutions; global eCommerce solutions; processing and ancillary applications solutions; digital solutions; fraud, risk management and compliance solutions; electronic funds transfer and network services solutions; card and retail payment solutions; wealth and retirement solutions; item processing and output services solutions; securities processing and finance solutions; global trading solutions; asset management and insurance solutions; and corporate liquidity solutions.

Humana Inc.

Humana is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health and well-being company. The company manages its business with three segments: Retail, which consists of products sold on a retail basis to individuals including medical and supplemental benefit plans, such as Medicare and state-based Medicaid Contracts; Group and Specialty, which consists of employer group commercial fully-insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits, including dental, vision and life insurance benefits, as well as administrative services only; and Healthcare Services, which includes pharmacy solutions, provider services, clinical care services, and predictive modeling and informatics services

Moody's Corporation

Moody's is a provider of credit ratings and assessment services; credit, capital markets and economic research, data and analytical tools; software solutions that support financial risk management activities; quantitatively derived credit scores; learning solutions and certification services; and company information and business intelligence products. The company's segments are: Moody's Investors Service, which publishes credit ratings on a range of debt obligations and the entities that issue such obligations in markets worldwide; and Moody's Analytics, which provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to assist businesses in making decisions.

Palo Alto Networks Inc.

Palo Alto Networks provides a platform that allows enterprises, service providers, and government entities to secure their organizations. The company's platform uses a traffic classification engine that identifies network traffic by application, user, and content and provides security across the network, endpoint, and cloud. The company's product, subscription, and support offerings include: firewall appliances and software; and Panorama, which is a centralized security management solution for global control of various firewall appliances and software deployed on an end-customer's network as well as in their instances in public or private cloud environments as a virtual appliance or a physical appliance.

Parker Drilling Co.

Parker Drilling is a provider of contract drilling and drilling-related services and rental tools and services. The company has two business lines: Drilling Services, which drills oil and natural gas wells for customers in both the U.S. and international markets; and Rental Tools Services, which provides rental equipment and services to exploration and production companies, drilling contractors and service companies on land and offshore in the U.S. and select international markets. Tools provided include drill pipe, tubing, pressure control equipment, and drill collars. The company also provides well construction services such as tubular running services and downhole tools, and well intervention services.

Ross Stores Inc.

Ross Stores and its subsidiaries operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores, which are Ross Dress for Less? (Ross) and dd's DISCOUNTS?. Ross provides name brand and designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 60% off department and specialty store regular prices every day. dd's DISCOUNTS provides name brand apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 70% off moderate department and discount store regular prices every day. Both of the company's Ross and dd's DISCOUNTS brands target women and men between the ages of 18 and 54.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO

Southwest Airlines operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The company has Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves destinations in various states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and other near-international countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. The company principally provides point-to-point service, which allows for direct nonstop routing. The company also provides a suite of digital platforms to support Customers' needs prior to and during the course of their travel.

Spirit Airlines Inc.

Spirit Airlines is an airline that provides travel opportunities principally throughout the domestic United States, the Caribbean and Latin America. The company's ultra low-cost carrier business model provides customers low, unbundled base fares with a range of optional services, allowing customers to choose their options. The majority of the company's tickets are sold through direct channels including online via www.spirit.com, its call center and its airport ticket counters, with www.spirit.com being the primary channel. The company also partners with a number of third parties to distribute its tickets, including online and travel agents and electronic global distribution systems.

Sysco Corporation

Sysco, acting through its subsidiaries and divisions, is a distributor of food and related products primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry. The company has three reportable segments: United States Foodservice Operations, which primarily include United States Broadline operations, which distribute a line of food products, including custom-cut meat, seafood, specialty produce, specialty imports and a variety of non-food products; International Foodservice Operations, which include operations in the Americas and Europe, which distribute a line of food products and a variety of non-food products; and SYGMA, which consists of its United States customized distribution subsidiary.

United Natural Foods Inc.

United Natural Foods is a distributor of natural, organic, specialty, produce, and grocery and non-food products, and provider of support services in the United States and Canada. The company's selection of products includes nationally advertised brand name and private-label products, including grocery, general merchandise, home, health and beauty care, and pharmacy, which are sold through its Wholesale segment to wholesale customers and through its subsidiary, SUPERVALU INC.'s-operated retail stores to shoppers. The company provides marketing services for its customers and suppliers, including consumer and trade marketing programs, as well as programs to support suppliers in understanding its markets.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc

Walgreens Boots Alliance is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in retail and wholesale pharmacy. The company's operations are organized into three divisions, which are also its reportable segments: Retail Pharmacy USA; Retail Pharmacy International; and Pharmaceutical Wholesale. The Retail Pharmacy USA division has pharmacy-led health and beauty retail offerings. The Retail Pharmacy International division has pharmacy-led health and beauty retail businesses. The Pharmaceutical Wholesale division, which mainly operates under the Alliance Healthcare brand, supplies medicines, other healthcare products and related services to pharmacies, doctors, health centers and hospitals.

Yellow Corporation

YRC Worldwide is a holding company. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company provides its customers a range of transportation services. The company's reporting segments include: YRC Freight, which provides a range of services for the transportation of industrial, commercial and retail goods in national, regional and international markets, primarily through the operation of owned or leased equipment in its North American ground distribution network; and Regional Transportation, in which its service portfolio includes regional delivery, guaranteed and expedited delivery, interregional delivery, cross-border delivery, and hollandregional.com, newpenn.com, and reddawayregional.com.

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Valens Research

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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