Report
Valens Research

BFAM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 04 27

Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 38.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 18%, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 14% in 2023, accompanied by 9% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $98, representing approximately 22% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth, pandemic impacts, and labor pressures.
Underlying
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc.

Bright Horizons Family Solutions is a provider of child care and early education, back-up care and educational advisory services. The company provides services under contracts with employers, who provide child care, as well as other dependent care solutions and educational advisory services. The company's service offerings include full-service center-based child care and early education, back-up care, and educational advisory services. The company operates child care and early education centers across a range of customer industries with the capacity to serve children and their families in the U.S., as well as in the U.K., the Netherlands, Canada and India.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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