BIIB - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 09 07
Biogen Inc. (BIIB:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 15.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may have concerns about the fallout from the ADUHELM rollout, TYSABRI growth, and their progress on realizing new neuroscience opportunities.Specifically, management may have concerns about the professionalism of the Biogen and FDA teams throughout the ADUHELM approval process, ARIA risk, and the consequence of the approval on the development of other Alzheimer's drugs. Furthermore, they may be downplaying concerns about the safety and efficacy data from ADUHELM's EMBARK study, the sustainability of widespread ADUHELM coverage by Medicare Advantage plans, and the progress of baseline MRI appointments for ADUHELM patients. Additionally, management may be overstating Tofursen's ability to treat SOD1 ALS patients, and they may be concerned about TYSABRI's increasingly relevant role in MS treatment and the sustainability of positive clinical trial results for uranolone and ACTEMRA. Moreover, they may lack confidence in their ability to capitalize on new opportunities in the neuroscience area and further transform into a business that builds a multi-franchise portfolio across a broad spectrum of neuroscience therapeutic areas.
Biogen is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and delivering therapies for people living with neurological and neurodegenerative diseases as well as related therapeutic adjacencies. The company's main growth areas include multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuroimmunology; Alzheimer's disease and dementia; neuromuscular disorders, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; movement disorders, including Parkinson's disease; and ophthalmology. The company's marketed products include TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, VUMERITY and FAMPYRA for the treatment of MS, SPINRAZA for the treatment of SMA and FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis.
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