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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 01 09

EBAY currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 10.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to continue to decline from 16% in 2017 to 7% in 2022, accompanied by 5% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have less bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to only fall to 14% through 2019, accompanied by 14% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, management is confident about various tailwinds, suggesting upside the market is failing to price in. Should EBAY just sustain profitability near current levels, as positive management sentiment would suggest, upside would be warranted.

TGT Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fade slightly, but management is confident about growth, initiatives, and shareholder returns

HSY Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to plateau at current levels, and management is optimistic about growth and market trends

NXPI Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for material declines in Uniform ROA, but management is confident about OpEx, utilization, and debt positioning

BMRN, ETN, ICE, IFF, MAR, OMC, PETR4:BRA, SBAC
Underlyings
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes therapies for people with serious and life-threatening rare diseases and medical conditions. The company's commercial products are Aldurazyme (laronidase) for Mucopolysaccharidosis I; Brineura (cerliponase alfa) for the treatment of late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis type 2; Kuvan (sapropterin dihydrochloride) for the treatment of phenylketonuria; Naglazyme (galsulfase) the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VI ; Palynziq (pegvaliase-pqpz) for adult patients with phenylketonuria; and Vimizim (elosulfase alpha) for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis IV Type A.

Eaton Corp. Plc

EBay Inc.

eBay is a global commerce provider, which includes its Marketplace, StubHub and Classifieds platforms. The company's Marketplace platforms include its online marketplace located at www.ebay.com, its localized counterparts and the eBay suite of mobile apps. The company's StubHub platforms include its online ticket platform located at www.stubhub.com, its localized counterparts and the StubHub mobile apps. These platforms connect fans with their favorite sporting events, shows and artists and enable them to buy and sell tickets whenever and wherever they want. The company's Classifieds platforms include a collection of brands such as mobile.de, Kijiji, Gumtree, Marktplaats, eBay Kleinanzeigen and others.

Hershey Company

Hershey is engaged in the production of chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery. The company's segments are: North America, which is responsible for the company's chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery market position, and its grocery and snacks market positions, in the United States and Canada; and International and Other, in which the company has operations and manufactures product in China, Mexico, Brazil, India and Malaysia, and also distributes and sells confectionery products in export markets of Asia, Latin America, Middle East, Europe, Africa and other regions. The company's product offerings include chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products, gum and mint refreshment products, snack and pantry items.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

Intercontinental Exchange is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global operator of regulated exchanges, clearing houses and listings venues, and a provider of data services for commodity, financial, fixed income and equity markets. The company operates regulated marketplaces for listing, trading and clearing an array of derivatives contracts and securities across primary asset classes, including metals, equities, bonds and currencies, and also provides mortgage and technology services. In addition, the company provides data services to support the trading, investment, risk management and connectivity needs of customers. The company has two segments: Trading and Clearing and Data and Listings.

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.

International Flavors & Fragrances is a creator and manufacturer of taste, scent and complementary adjacent products, including cosmetic active and natural health ingredients. The company's operating segments are Taste and Scent. The Taste segment develops a range of different flavors and taste offerings for its customers, most of which are tailor-made. The company's Taste business is comprised of various portfolios across flavor compounds, savory solutions, inclusions and nutrition and specialty ingredients. The Scent segment creates fragrance compounds and fragrance ingredients for the household and personal care products. The company also produces cosmetic active and functional ingredients for use in cosmetics.

Marriott International Inc. Class A

Marriott International is a worldwide operator, franchisor, and licensor of hotel, residential and timeshare properties under various brand names at different price and service points. The company has operations in the following reportable business segments: North American Full-Service, which includes the company's Luxury and Premium properties located in United States and Canada; North American Limited-Service, which includes the company's Select properties located in United States and Canada; and Asia Pacific, which includes all properties in the company's Asia Pacific region.

NXP Semiconductors NV

NXP Semiconductors is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a global semiconductor company and a long-standing supplier in the industry. Co. provides High-Performance Mixed-Signal and Standard Product solutions. Co.'s product solutions are used in automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, industrial, mobile, consumer and computing applications. Co. engages with original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and sell products in all major geographic regions.

Omnicom Group Inc

Omnicom Group is a holding company, engaged in providing advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. The company's networks and agencies provide a range of services in the following fundamental disciplines: advertising, customer relationship management, public relations and healthcare. The company's Service offerings include, among others, advertising, branding, content marketing, corporate social responsibility consulting, crisis communications, custom publishing, data analytics, database management, digital/direct marketing, digital transformation, entertainment marketing, experiential marketing, field marketing, financial/corporate business-to-business advertising, and imaging.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA

SBA Communications Corp. Class A

SBA Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure, including tower structures, rooftops, and other structures that support antennas used for wireless communications. The company's operations are in the U.S. and its territories. In its site leasing business, the company leases antenna space to wireless service providers on towers that the company owns or operates and manages rooftop and tower sites for property owners under various contractual arrangements. In its site development business, the company assists wireless service providers in developing and maintaining their own wireless service networks.

Target Corporation

Target provides its customers everyday essentials and merchandise. The company sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The majority of the company's general merchandise stores provide an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items. The company's small format stores provide curated general merchandise and food assortments. The company's digital channels include merchandise assortment, including various items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment. The company also sells merchandise through periodic design and partnerships. The company's owned brands merchandise include: A New Day?, Archer Farms?, Art Class?, Ava & Viv?, Cat & Jack?, and Cloud Island?, among others.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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