Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 04 20

Current market expectations for GTII are for profitability to reverse impressive gains, and
growth to remain high but slow significantly. Markets expect UAFRS-based ROA (Uniform ROA or ROA') to drop from a forecasted 30% in 2021 to 17% going forward, with growth falling by more than half.

However, the company is primed to ride the tailwinds of cannabis legalization, which may lead to the market opportunity for Green Thumb to more than triple in the coming years. On top of that, the company has positioned itself well with a sound strategy for growing high returns thanks to its branded product offerings and its portfolio of licensed store growth opportunities. This may enable the company to grow even faster than the market opportunity as a whole.

Management has significant experience not just in the cannabis industry, but also in retail and in strategies to engage and retain retail customers, as well as in strategic acquisitions. They are also material owners of the company's equity, aligning themselves with investors.
Moreover, management isn't just well aligned, they are executing on growth too.
Management has confidence in the company's ability to execute on its capital allocation strategy, and around its brand strategy. Management sees opportunity not just for market and footprint growth, but also for sustainable branded product growth, which will lead to higher returns.

Considering strong macro tailwinds, solid management execution, low market expectations,
combined with management's confidence about executing growth, there is significant equity
upside potential for Green Thumb.

HGV Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to recover, but management may be concerned about demand, default rates, and capital allocation

MHK Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, and management is confident about their production, plant consolidation, and sales

SFM Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, but management is confident about new stores, gross profit, and their distribution centers

GTII, HGV, MHK, SFM, BLKB, CGNX, CLF, CMD, DXC, FOXF, GATX, HFC, HRB, IONS, LAUR, MD, NXST, SAFM, SJM, TGNA, VMW
Underlyings
Blackbaud Inc.

Blackbaud is a cloud software company. The company is engaged in providing software solutions in cloud and hosted environments, providing payment and transaction services, providing software maintenance and support services, and providing services, including implementation, consulting, training, analytic and other services. The company's portfolio provides fundraising and relationship management, marketing and engagement, financial management, grant and award management, organizational and program management (such as education management, church management and ticketing), social responsibility, payment services and analytics.

Cantel Medical Corp.

Cantel Medical is a provider of infection prevention products and services in the healthcare market. The company has four segments: Medical, which designs, develops, manufactures, sells and installs products and services comprising a circle of infection prevention solutions; Life Sciences, which designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and installs water purification systems; Dental, which designs, manufactures, sells, supplies and distributes infection prevention healthcare products; and Dialysis, which designs, develops, manufactures, sells and services reprocessing systems and sterilants for dialyzers, as well as dialysate concentrates and supplies utilized for renal dialysis

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc

Cleveland-Cliffs is an iron ore mining company. The company is a supplier of iron ore pellets to the North American steel industry from its mines and pellet plants located in Michigan and Minnesota. The company is organized according to its differentiated products. The company has two segments: Mining and Pelletizing, which the company is a main producer of iron ore pellets, primarily selling production from its Mining and Pelletizing segment to integrated steel companies in the U.S. and Canada; and Metallics, which constructing a Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) production plant, whereby HBI is an iron alternative to scrap that, when used as a feedstock, allows an Electric Arc Furnace to produces valuable grades of steel.

Cognex Corporation

Cognex is a provider of machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information in order to automate manufacturing and distribution tasks where vision is required. Machine vision products are used to automate the manufacture and tracking of discrete items, such as mobile phones, aspirin bottles, and automobile tires, by locating, identifying, inspecting, and measuring them during the manufacturing or distribution process. The company provides a range of machine vision systems and sensors, vision software, and industrial image-based barcode readers. The company's products also have a variety of physical forms, depending upon the user's needs.

DXC Technology Co.

DXC Technology is an end-to-end IT services company. The company provides a range of information technology services and solutions primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. The company operates through two segments: Global Business Services, which provides technology solutions that help the company's clients address main business challenges and improve digital transformations tailored to each client's industry and objectives; and Global Infrastructure Services, which provides a portfolio of offerings that deliver predictable outcomes and measurable results, while reducing business risk and operational costs for clients.

Fox Factory Holding Corp.

Fox Factory Holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of products and systems used on bicycles, side-by-side vehicles, on-road vehicles with and without off-road capabilities, off-road vehicles and trucks, all-terrain vehicles, snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, motorcycles, and commercial trucks. In its powered vehicle product categories, the company provides products under the FOX, BDS Suspension, Zone Offroad, JKS Manufacturing, RT Pro UTV, 4x4 Posi-Lok, and Tuscany brands. The company's bike product offerings are used on a range of mountain bikes and road bikes under the FOX, Race Face, Easton Cycling and Marzocchi brands.

GATX Corporation

GATX is a global railcar lessor. The Rail North America segment provides railcars pursuant to full-service leases under which it maintains the railcars, pays ad valorem taxes and property insurance, and provides other ancillary services. The Rail International segment leases railcars pursuant to full-service leases under which it maintains the railcars and provides services according to customer requirements. The Portfolio Management segment leases aircraft spare engines, as well as five liquefied gas-carrying vessels. The American Steamship Company segment provides waterborne transportation of dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal, limestone aggregates, and metallurgical limestone.

Green Thumb Industries, Inc.

H&R Block Inc.

H&R Block provides assisted, do-it-yourself, and virtual tax return preparation solutions through various channels (including in-person, online and mobile applications, virtual, and desktop software) and distributes the company-branded products and services to the general public in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and their respective territories. The company also provides additional services, such as Refund Transfers, its Peace of Mind? Extended Service Plan (POM), H&R Block Emerald Prepaid Mastercard?, H&R Block Emerald Advance? lines of credit, Tax Identity Shield?, and Refund Advance loans. For its Canadian clients the company also provides POM, H&R Block Instant Refund?, and H&R Block Pay With Refund? services.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

HollyFrontier Corporation

HollyFrontier is a petroleum refiner that produces products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, other lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. The company's segments are: Refining, which involves the purchase and refining of crude oil and wholesale and marketing of refined products; Lubricants and Specialty Products, which includes the production of lubricant products such as base oils, white oils, other products and finished lubricants; and the company's subsidiary, Holly Energy Partners, L.P., which owns and operates logistics and refinery assets consisting of petroleum product and crude oil pipelines, terminals, tankage, loading rack facilities and processing units.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is engaged in discovering and developing RNA-targeted therapeutics. The company has two commercial medicines, SPINRAZA and TEGSEDI. SPINRAZA (nusinersen) injection for intrathecal use is a survival motor neuron-2, directed antisense oligonucleotide indicated for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy in pediatric and adult patients. TEGSEDI (inotersen) injection is a Generation 2+ antisense medicine and an approved subcutaneous RNA-targeting medicine designed to treat people with polyneuropathy caused by hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis.

J.M. Smucker Company

Smucker (J.M.) manufactures and markets food and beverage products. The company's principal products are coffee, dog food, pet snacks, cat food, peanut butter, fruit spreads, frozen handheld products, shortening and oils, portion control products, juices and beverages, and flour and baking ingredients. The company has four reportable segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods, and U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and International and Away From Home. The U.S. retail market segments represent the sales of food and beverage products to consumers through retail outlets in North America. The International and Away From Home segment represents sales outside of the U.S. retail market segments.

Laureate Education Inc. Class A

Laureate Education is engaged in providing higher education programs and services to students through an international network of licensed universities and higher education institutions (institutions). The company's programs are provided through institutions that are campus-based and internet-based, or through electronically distributed educational programs. The company has five reportable segments: Brazil; Mexico; Andean; Rest of World; and Online and Partnerships. The company's Online and Partnerships segment principally consists of Walden University.

MEDNAX Inc.

MEDNAX provides physician services including newborn, anesthesia, maternal-fetal, radiology and teleradiology, pediatric cardiology and other pediatric subspecialty care. The company's network comprised of physicians, including physicians who provide neonatal clinical care, primarily within hospital-based neonatal intensive care units, to babies born prematurely or with medical complications. The company also provides radiology services and teleradiology services. In addition to its national physician network, the company provides services to healthcare facilities and physicians, including the company's, through complementary businesses, consisting of a management services organization and a consulting services company.

Mohawk Industries Inc.

Mohawk Industries is a global flooring manufacturer for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The company has three segments: Global Ceramic, which designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets a line of ceramic, porcelain and natural stone tile products used for floor and wall applications; Flooring North America, which designs, manufactures, sources and distributes broadloom carpet, carpet tile, rugs and mats, carpet pad, laminate, medium-density fiberboard, luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and sheet vinyl; and Flooring Rest of the World, which designs, manufactures, sources and distributes laminate, LVT and sheet vinyl, wood flooring, broadloom carpet and carpet tile collections.

Nexstar Media Group Inc. Class A

Nexstar Media Group is a television broadcasting and digital media company focused on the acquisition, development and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services. The stations provide over-the-air programming. This programming includes programs produced by networks with which the stations are affiliated; programs that the stations produce; and first-run and rerun syndicated programs that the stations acquire. The company's digital media businesses provide digital publishing and content management platform, digital video advertising platform, social media advertising platform and other digital media solutions to media publishers and advertisers.

Sanderson Farms Inc.

Sanderson Farms is a poultry processing company engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of frozen chicken products, including processed and minimally prepared chicken. The company sells ice-packed, chill-packed, bulk-packed and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form to retailers, distributors, and casual dining operators, and to customers who resell frozen chicken into export markets. The company operates through: Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division), which is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler stage; and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), which is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chicken products.

Sprouts Farmers Markets Inc.

Sprouts Farmers Market operates as a healthy grocery store. The company categorizes the varieties of products it sells as perishable and non-perishable. Perishable product categories include produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery, floral and dairy and dairy alternatives. Non-perishable product categories include grocery, vitamins and supplements, bulk items, frozen foods, beer and wine, and natural health and body care. The company's stores include the following departments: packaged groceries, meat and seafood, deli, vitamins and supplements, dairy and dairy alternatives, bulk items, baked goods, frozen foods, natural health and body care, and beer and wine.

TEGNA Inc.

TEGNA is a media company. The company's business provides television programming and digital content. Each television station also has a digital presence across online, mobile and social platforms. The company provides advertising and marketing services, which include local and national non-political television advertising, digital marketing services, and advertising on stations' websites and tablet and mobile products; subscription by satellite, cable, Over the Top and telecommunications providers; political advertising; and other services, such as production of programming and advertising material. The company's portfolio of Big 4 NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX stations operate under long-term affiliation agreements.

VMware Inc. Class A

VMware is engaged in the development and application of technologies with x86 server-based computing, separating application software from the underlying hardware. The company's product and service solutions are organized into three main product groups: Software-Defined Data Center, which is designed to transform the data center into an on-demand service that addresses application requirements; Hybrid Cloud Computing, which is comprised of VMware Cloud Provider Program and VMware Cloud Services; and End-User Computing solution, which consists of VMware Workspace ONE, its digital workspace platform, that includes Unified Endpoint Management and VMware Horizon application and desktop virtualization.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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