Report
Valens Research

BA - Valens Credit Report - 2022 08 19

Credit markets are overstating BA's credit risk with a YTW of 4.475% and CDS of 138bps, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 3.135% and Intrinsic CDS of 15bps.

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly favorable signals for credit holders. Management's compensation metrics should drive them to focus on expanding revenues and margins, which could lead to Uniform ROA expansion. Moreover, the cash flow metrics will also improve asset utilization since it will drive management to focus on managing spending for inventories, working capital, and capex which will improve asset utilization. Furthermore, the safety metrics should drive higher asset utilization through less employee and operational downtime.
Underlying
BOEING COMPANY (THE)

The Boeing is an aerospace firm. The company's segments include: Commercial Airplanes, which develops, produces and markets commercial jet aircraft and provides fleet support services, mainly to the commercial airline industry; Defense, Space and Security, which engages in the research, development, production and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems for strike, surveillance and mobility, vertical lift, and commercial derivative aircraft; Global Services, which provides supply chain and logistics management, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, and data analytics and digital services; and Boeing Capital, which manages overall financing exposure.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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