Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 06 27

KFY currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with an 18.4x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is discounting the potential benefits of the Hay acquisition, pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 20% in 2017 to 16% through 2022, accompanied by 5% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have more bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to remain at current 20% levels through 2019, accompanied by 7% Uniform Asset growth. At current valuations, the market is pricing the company to see profitability decline over the next several years, which seems unreasonable given strong macro tailwinds and the firm's favorable positioning, despite management's negative sentiment. Should KFY take advantage of these trends going forward and simply maintain Uniform ROA at current levels, equity upside is likely warranted.


DIS Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable at current levels, and management is confident in Marvel, their digital properties, and their Parks business


MMC Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable at recent highs, but management has concerns about the Marsh business, revenue growth, and their cash position

TGT Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for stable Uniform ROA at recent levels, and management is confident about digital channel growth as well as pickup and delivery initiatives

6501:JPN, AVGO, CNX, COHR, EBAY, ETN, GT, LIN:DEU, MLM, NSC, PLOW, REVG, SAFM, TMO, XRAY
Underlyings
Broadcom Inc.

Broadcom, via its subsidiaries, is a designer, developer and supplier of a range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company develops semiconductor devices with a focus on digital and mixed signal complementary metal oxide semiconductor based devices and analog III-V based products. The company provides products that are used in end products such as enterprise and data center networking, home connectivity, set-top boxes, broadband access, telecommunication equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage systems, and factory automation. The company has three segments: semiconductor solutions, infrastructure software and intellectual property licensing.

CNX Resources Corporation

CNX Resources is an independent oil and gas company focused on the exploration, development, production, gathering, processing and acquisition of natural gas properties primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The company's operations are centered on unconventional shale formations, primarily the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale. The company operates, develops and explores for natural gas in Appalachia (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and Virginia).

Coherent Inc.

Coherent is a provider of lasers, laser-based technologies and laser-based system solutions in a range of commercial, industrial and scientific applications. The company reporting segments are: OEM Laser Sources (OLS) and Industrial Lasers and Systems (ILS). The company's OLS business segment is focused on laser sources and optical sub-systems primarily used in microelectronics manufacturing, medical diagnostics and therapeutic medical applications, as well as in scientific research. The company's ILS business segment delivers laser sources, sub-systems and tools used for industrial laser materials processing, serving end markets like automotive, machine tool, consumer goods and medical device manufacturing.

DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.

DENTSPLY SIRONA is a manufacturer of dental products and technologies. The company's Consumables segment is responsible for the design, manufacture, sales and distribution of the company's dental consumable products which include preventive, restorative, endodontic, and dental laboratory products. The company's Technologies and Equipment segment includes responsibility for the design, manufacture, sales and distribution of the company's dental technology and equipment products and healthcare consumable products, including dental implants, computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing systems, orthodontic clear aligner products, imaging systems, treatment centers, instruments, and consumable medical device products.

Douglas Dynamics Inc.

Douglas Dynamics is a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial work truck attachments and equipment. The company's segments are: Work Truck Attachments, which includes manufactured snow and ice control attachments sold under the FISHER?, HENDERSON?, SNOWEX? and WESTERN? brands; and Work Truck Solutions, which includes the upfit of attachments and storage solutions for commercial work vehicles under the DEJANA? brand and its related sub-brands. The company's Work Truck Solutions products consist of truck and vehicle upfits where the company attaches component pieces of equipment, truck bodies, racking, and storage solutions to a vehicle chassis, and which are typically used by end-users for work related purposes.

Eaton Corp. Plc

EBay Inc.

eBay is a global commerce provider, which includes its Marketplace, StubHub and Classifieds platforms. The company's Marketplace platforms include its online marketplace located at www.ebay.com, its localized counterparts and the eBay suite of mobile apps. The company's StubHub platforms include its online ticket platform located at www.stubhub.com, its localized counterparts and the StubHub mobile apps. These platforms connect fans with their favorite sporting events, shows and artists and enable them to buy and sell tickets whenever and wherever they want. The company's Classifieds platforms include a collection of brands such as mobile.de, Kijiji, Gumtree, Marktplaats, eBay Kleinanzeigen and others.

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company

Goodyear Tire & Rubber develops, manufactures, distributes and sells tires and related products and services worldwide. The company manufactures and markets various lines of rubber tires for: automobiles, trucks, buses, aircraft, motorcycles, earthmoving and mining equipment, farm implements, industrial equipment, and various other applications. The company manufactures and sells tires under the Goodyear, Dunlop, Kelly, Debica, Sava and Fulda brands and various other Goodyear owned house brands, and the private-label brands of certain customers. The company operates its business through three operating segments representing its regional tire businesses: Americas; Europe, Middle East and Africa; and Asia Pacific.

Hitachi Ltd.

Hitachi and its subsidiaries are engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of diversified product mix ranging from electricity generation systems to consumer products and electronic devices. Co.'s businesses are diverse, and include information and telecommunication systems, social infrastructure and industrial systems, electronic systems and equipment, construction machinery, high functional materials and components, automotive systems, life & eco systems, financial services, and others including logistics services, optical disk drive, as well as real estate business.

Korn Ferry

Korn Ferry is an organizational consulting firm. The company is engaged in the business of giving client awareness to its range of talent management solutions. The company's segments include: Executive Search, in which the company's services are used to fill executive-level positions, such as board directors, chief executive officers, chief operating officers, chief information officers, chief human resource officers and other senior executive officers; Advisory, which helps clients design their organization and shows them the way to compensate, develop and motivate their people; and RPO and Professional Search, which combines people, process personnel and intellectual property enabled technology.

LINDE AG

Linde is a gases and engineering company based in Germany. Co. operates through two divisions. The Gases division provides a range of compressed and liquefied gases as well as chemicals. Co.'s gases are used in the energy sector, in steel production, chemical processing, environmental protection, and welding, as well as in food processing, glass production and electronics. The Engineering division is engaged in industrial plants construction globally, focusing on market segments such as plants for the production of hydrogen and synthesis gas, air separation and olefins as well as plants for natural gas treatment.

Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc.

Marsh & McLennan Companies is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides clients advice and solutions in risk, strategy and people. The company provides analysis, advice and transactional capabilities to clients. The company conducts business through two segments: Risk and Insurance Services, which includes risk management activities (risk advice, risk transfer and risk control and mitigation solutions) as well as insurance and reinsurance broking and services; and Consulting, which includes health, wealth and career services and products, and other management, economic and brand consulting services.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc.

Martin Marietta Materials is a natural resource-based building materials company. The company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of quarries, mines and distribution yards. The company also provides cement and downstream products, namely, ready mixed concrete, asphalt and paving services. The company conducts its Building Materials business through three segments: Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Mid-America and Southeast Groups provide aggregates products only. The West Group provides aggregates, cement and downstream products. The company also has the Magnesia Specialties segment, which includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

Norfolk Southern Corporation

Norfolk Southern is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. The company also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. The company provides intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. The company's railroad operates in several states and the District of Columbia. The company's system reaches manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers, transload facilities, and other businesses in its service area.

REV Group Inc.

REV Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, manufacturer and distributor of specialty vehicles and related aftermarket parts and services. The company provides customized vehicle solutions for applications including: essential needs (ambulances, fire apparatus, school buses and municipal transit buses), industrial and commercial (terminal trucks, cut-away buses and sweepers) and consumer leisure (recreational vehicles (RVs), and coaches). The company's segments are: Fire and Emergency, which sells fire apparatus equipment and ambulances; Commercial, which produces buses, terminal trucks and sweepers; and Recreation, which provides motorized and towable RV models.

Sanderson Farms Inc.

Sanderson Farms is a poultry processing company engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of frozen chicken products, including processed and minimally prepared chicken. The company sells ice-packed, chill-packed, bulk-packed and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form to retailers, distributors, and casual dining operators, and to customers who resell frozen chicken into export markets. The company operates through: Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division), which is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler stage; and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), which is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chicken products.

Target Corporation

Target provides its customers everyday essentials and merchandise. The company sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The majority of the company's general merchandise stores provide an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items. The company's small format stores provide curated general merchandise and food assortments. The company's digital channels include merchandise assortment, including various items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment. The company also sells merchandise through periodic design and partnerships. The company's owned brands merchandise include: A New Day?, Archer Farms?, Art Class?, Ava & Viv?, Cat & Jack?, and Cloud Island?, among others.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is engaged in serving science. The company's segments include: Life Sciences Solutions, which provides reagents, instruments and consumables used in biological and medical research, discovery and production of new drugs and vaccines as well as diagnosis of disease; Analytical Instruments, which provides instruments, consumables, software and services that are used for a range of applications in the laboratory, on the production line and in the field; and Specialty Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic test kits, reagents, culture media, instruments and associated products for customers in healthcare, clinical, pharmaceutical, industrial, and food safety laboratories.

Walt Disney Company

Walt Disney is an entertainment company. The company's segments are: Media Networks, which includes domestic cable networks, broadcast television network and domestic television stations, and television production and distribution; Parks, Experiences and Products, which includes theme parks and resorts, and consumer products operations; Studio Entertainment, which includes motion picture production and distribution, music production and distribution, and post-production services; and Direct-to-Consumer and International, which includes international television networks and channels, direct-to-consumer streaming services, and other digital content distribution platforms and services.

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