Report
Valens Research

CAT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 09 10

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT:USA) currently trades at recent lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 19.7x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, and management is confident about top-line growth, profitability and shareholder returns

Specifically, management is confident in their ability to sustain growth in sales and revenue, particularly in the cruise sector. Moreover, they are confident in their ability to continue delivering on the commitments they made at their Investor Day last September, maintaining high profit per share and returning capital to shareholders. Additionally, they are confident in their ability to sustain high operating margins, and about the sustainability of strong aftermarket mining orders. Finally, they are confident about the sustainability of sales growth in the Asia-Pacific region, driven by continued investment in building construction and infrastructure
Underlying
Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company segments include: Construction Industries, which supports customers using machinery in infrastructure, forestry and building construction; Resource Industries, which supports customers using machinery in mining, heavy construction, quarry and aggregates, waste and material handling applications; Energy and Transportation, which supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail and industrial applications, including Cat? machines; and Financial Products, which provides financing and related services.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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