Report
Valens Research

CAT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 02 22

Caterpillar (CAT) currently trades below corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 15.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to rebound to 11%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 17% in 2022, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $353, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm. That said, given the cyclical nature of the industry, this level of performance is likely unsustainable.

In addition, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about margins, demand, and supply chain disruptions.
Underlying
Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company segments include: Construction Industries, which supports customers using machinery in infrastructure, forestry and building construction; Resource Industries, which supports customers using machinery in mining, heavy construction, quarry and aggregates, waste and material handling applications; Energy and Transportation, which supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail and industrial applications, including Cat? machines; and Financial Products, which provides financing and related services.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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