Report
Valens Research

CNC - Valens Credit Report - 2023 12 12

Credit markets are overstating CNC's credit risk with a YTW of 5.738% and a CDS of 152bps, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.858% and an Intrinsic CDS of 69bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating CNC's fundamental credit risk with its Ba1 credit rating three notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As positives, most management members are material owners of CNC equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be well-aligned with shareholders in terms of long-term value creation. Moreover, most management members have low change-in-control compensation relative to their average compensation, indicating they are unlikely to pursue a takeover or accept a sale of the company, decreasing event risk for creditors.

Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q3 2023 earnings call (10/24/2023) highlights that management is confident they are prepared for North Carolina's Medicaid expansion that will go live in December, and that PBM migration is important to their 2024 financial targets. In addition, they are confident there are a few remaining assets they will continue to evaluate and reposition, and that they are rebuilding their operational capacity and infrastructure to support sustainable programmatic improvement.
Underlying
Centene Corporation

Centene is an insurance holding company. The company's Managed Care segment provides health plan coverage to individuals through government subsidized programs. The company also provides a variety of individual, small group, and large group commercial healthcare products, both to employers and directly to members in the Managed Care segment. The company's Specialty Services segment consists of the company's specialty companies prviding healthcare services and products to state programs, correctional facilities, healthcare organizations, employer groups and other commercial organizations, as well as to its own subsidiaries. The Specialty Service segment also includes the Government Contracts business.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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