Report
Valens Research

CHDN - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 05 16

Churchill Downs (CHDN) currently trades above corporate but below recent averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 33.3x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Similarly, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 21% by 2023, accompanied by 13% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $265, representing approximately 31% equity upside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about online betting, growth opportunities, and off-track betting.
Underlying
Churchill Downs Incorporated

Churchill Downs is a racing, online wagering and gaming entertainment company. The company manages its operations through three reportable segments: Churchill Downs, Online Wagering, and Gaming. Churchill Downs includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing at Churchill Downs Racetrack and Derby City Gaming. Online Wagering includes the company's TwinSpires business and its online sports betting and iGaming business. Gaming includes casino properties and associated racetrack or jai alai facilities which support the casino license as applicable.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

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