Report
Valens Research

CTAS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 16

Cintas Corporation (CTAS) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 38.8x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to record highs of 41%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain stable at 25% through 2023, accompanied by 1% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $204, representing significant potential equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth, demand, pricing, automation, and labor shortages.
Underlying
Cintas Corporation

Cintas is a provider of corporate identity uniforms through rental and sales programs, as well as a provider of related business services, including entrance mats, restroom cleaning services and supplies, carpet and tile cleaning services, first aid and safety services and fire protection products and services. The company's segments are Uniform Rental and Facility Services, which consists of the rental and servicing of uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels and other ancillary items; and The First Aid and Safety Services, which consists of first aid and safety products and services.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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