Report
Valens Research

CME - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 31

CME Group Inc. (CME) currently trades above corporate and near recent averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 33.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks of 79%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to compress to 49% in 2022, accompanied by 10% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $179, representing approximately 21% equity downside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about futures volume and revenue growth.
Underlying
CME Group Inc. Class A

CME Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company exchanges provides a range of global benchmark products across asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), agricultural, energy and metal commodities. The company provides futures and options on futures trading across asset classes through its subsidiary, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) Globex platform, cash and repo fixed income trading via BrokerTec, and cash and OTC FX trading via EBS. In addition, the company operates central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing, a division of CME. The company also provides optimization, reconciliation and processing services through TriOptima, Traiana and Reset.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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