Report
Valens Research

COST - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 05 31

Costco (COST) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 33.6x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach a new high of 25%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain flat at 17% levels through 2023, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $314, representing approximately 25% potential equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about executive memberships, growth, and inflation.
Underlying
Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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