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Valens Research

DAL - Valens Credit Report - 2021 03 09

Credit markets are materially overstating credit risk, with a cash bond YTW of 3.382% and CDS of 281bps relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 1.722% and an Intrinsic CDS of 101bps

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights positive signals for creditors. Specifically, DAL's compensation metrics should focus management on all three value drivers: asset efficiency, margins, and top-line growth, leading to Uniform ROA expansion and increased cash flows available to service obligations. Moreover, management has low change-in-control compensation, indicating they are not incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a buyout of the company, which combined with DAL's size, limits event risk for creditors

Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q3 2020 earnings call (11/16) highlights that management generated an excitement marker when saying that business travel will come back stronger than ever. Additionally, they are confident in their ability to rapid test travelers to return to international travel
Underlying
Delta Air Lines Inc.

Delta Air Lines provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo. The company serves the Transatlantic, Transpacific and Latin America markets directly on the company and through joint ventures with airline partners. Internationally, the company has hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, London-Heathrow, Mexico City, Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Seoul-Incheon. These arrangements are commercial joint ventures that include joint sales and marketing coordination, co-location of airport facilities and other commercial cooperation arrangements. The company has other businesses arising from its airline operations, including providing maintenance and engineering support for its regional aircraft.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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