Report
Valens Research

DAL - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 05 05

Delta Air Lines (DAL) currently trades at a premium to Uniform assets, with a 1.8x Uniform P/B (V/A').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to positively inflect to 8%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 10% by 2023, accompanied by 14% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $152, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm, but post-pandemic growth may not be sustainable in the long run.

Meanwhile, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about pricing pressure, travel demand, and product offerings.
Underlying
Delta Air Lines Inc.

Delta Air Lines provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo. The company serves the Transatlantic, Transpacific and Latin America markets directly on the company and through joint ventures with airline partners. Internationally, the company has hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, London-Heathrow, Mexico City, Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Seoul-Incheon. These arrangements are commercial joint ventures that include joint sales and marketing coordination, co-location of airport facilities and other commercial cooperation arrangements. The company has other businesses arising from its airline operations, including providing maintenance and engineering support for its regional aircraft.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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