Report
Valens Research

DLX - Valens Credit Report - 2017 10 04

- Credit markets are materially understating credit risk with a CDS of 34bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 193bps. However, S&P is overstating fundamental credit risk with their BB rating, three notches lower than Valens' IG4 (BBB) rating

- Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that DLX management's compensation structure focuses management on improving margins and growth over time. However, it does not punish management for overspending on capex and acquisitions or taking on excess leverage, which could reduce cash flows available for handling debt obligations - Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q2 2017 earnings call (7/27) highlights that management is confident about the sustainability of lower brand awareness spending. However, they may lack confidence in their ability to drive marketing solutions and other services revenue growth at Direct Checks, and may be concerned about the potential for further declines in organic revenues

- Though credit markets appear overly complacent, equity markets expect Uniform ROA compression toward historically low levels. Considering the firm's recent shift to a higher Uniform ROA business, and their historically stable profitability, these expectations may be too low and equity downside is likely limited

Underlying
Deluxe Corporation

Deluxe is engaged in providing payment solutions. The company's marketing solutions and other services provides products and services designed to meet its customers' sales and marketing needs, as well as various other service offerings. The company's forms, accessories and other products provides printed business forms, including deposit tickets, billing forms, work orders, job proposals, purchase orders, invoices and personnel forms, as well as computer forms compatible with accounting software packages commonly used by small businesses. The company also provides other customized products, including envelopes, office supplies, ink stamps, labels, deposit tickets, check registers and checkbook covers.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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