Report
Valens Research

DNR - Valens Credit Report - 2018 0 26

Cash bond markets are grossly overstating credit risk with a YTW of 7.695% relative to an iCDS of 214bps and an iYTW of 4.965%. Meanwhile, Moody's is materially overstating credit risk, viewing DNR as an extremely speculative, high-yield credit, with its Caa1 rating seven notches below Valens' credit rating of XO (Baa3) Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that management's compensation framework should focus them on all three value drivers, likely leading to Uniform ROA expansion and increased cash flows available for servicing obligations. Additionally, half of all NEOs hold material DNR equity relative to their annual compensation, including CEO Kendall, likely aligning them with shareholders for long-term value creation. Finally, management also has low change-in-control compensation, limiting event risk for credit holders DNR currently trades at historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 0.4x Uniform P/B (V/A′). Companies at discounts this material are priced based on perceived credit risk, implying that the market is no longer pricing in expectations based on fundamentals at these levels. Given that the market is pricing in expectations for imminent bankruptcy, should perceived credit risk improve, equity upside could be material, and absent a default, equity downside is likely limited as well

Underlying
Denbury Resources Inc.

Denbury Resources is an independent oil and natural gas company. The company's operations are focused in two main operating areas: the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions. The company's properties with proved and producing reserves in the Gulf Coast region are situated in Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana and Alabama, and in the Rocky Mountain region are situated in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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