Report
Valens Research

EBAY - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 12 27

eBay (EBAY) currently trades below corporate but above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 17.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline to 17%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Given the firm's steady growth in core markets and continued At-Home Revolution tailwinds, there is fundamental potential for stronger-than-priced-in performance.

If the company can capitalize on these tailwinds, it could drive 19% Uniform ROA and 9% Uniform asset growth going forward, which would imply a stock price closer to $90, representing 40% equity upside.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about GMV, category initiatives, and managed payments.
Underlying
EBay Inc.

eBay is a global commerce provider, which includes its Marketplace, StubHub and Classifieds platforms. The company's Marketplace platforms include its online marketplace located at www.ebay.com, its localized counterparts and the eBay suite of mobile apps. The company's StubHub platforms include its online ticket platform located at www.stubhub.com, its localized counterparts and the StubHub mobile apps. These platforms connect fans with their favorite sporting events, shows and artists and enable them to buy and sell tickets whenever and wherever they want. The company's Classifieds platforms include a collection of brands such as mobile.de, Kijiji, Gumtree, Marktplaats, eBay Kleinanzeigen and others.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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