Report
Valens Research

ENDP - Valens Credit Report - 2018 04 03

Cash bond markets are materially overstating credit risk with a YTW of 12.451% relative to an iCDS of 640bps and an iYTW of 8.981%. Furthermore, S&P is also materially overstating ENDP's fundamental credit risk, with their high-yield B credit rating five notches lower than Valens' XO (BBB-) rating Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that ENDP's management is not well compensated in a change-in-control, meaning management may not be incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a buyout of the business, limiting event risk ENDP currently trades at the lower end of recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 16.1x Uniform P/E. At these valuations, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 23% in 2017 to 12% by 2022, accompanied by 8% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Given that valuations are likely being compressed by the market's inaccurate perception of the firm's credit risk, ENDP could see material credit-driven equity upside if credit spreads tighten, even without fundamental improvement

Underlying
Endo International Plc

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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