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Valens Research

EFX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 24

Equifax Inc. (EFX) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 38.8x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 81%, accompanied by 9% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 56% in 2022, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $153, representing approximately 44% equity downside for the firm.

However, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about revenue guidance, payroll record expansion, and their international business.
Underlying
EQUIFAX INC.

Equifax Inc. is a provider of information solutions and human resources business process outsourcing services for businesses, governments and consumers. The company's services are based on databases of consumer and business information. The company uses statistical techniques, machine learning and proprietary software tools to analyze all available data, creating insights, decision-making solutions and processing services for its clients. The company also provides information, technology and services to support debt collections and recovery management. Additionally, the company provides payroll-related and human resource management business process outsourcing services in the United States of America.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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