Report
Valens Research

XOM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 04 22

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM:USA) currently trades at a discount relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) assets, with a 0.8x Uniform P/B. Even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for profitability to inflect positively, but management may be concerned about reducing expenses, executing their emission reduction plans, and their current liquidity position

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to further reduce operating expenses, execute their new emission reduction plans, and continue expanding their carbon capture initiatives. Furthermore, they may have concerns about the oil and gas pricing environment, the continued impact of the pandemic on their business operations, and their current liquidity position. Moreover, management may lack confidence in their ability to deploy new lower-emitting energy technologies, capitalize on clean energy product opportunities, and secure advantageous investments
Underlying
Exxon Mobil Corporation

Exxon Mobil operates or markets products in United States and other countries through its divisions and affiliated companies. The company's business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas and manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and other products. In United States, the company's development activities are focused on the onshore United States, in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken oil play in North Dakota. Gas development activities are also focused on the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the Utica Shale of Ohio and the Haynesville Shale of East Texas and Louisiana.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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