Report
Valens Research

FDX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 04 16

FedEx Corporation (FDX:USA) currently trades near historical highs relative to
UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.6x Uniform P/B, implying bullish expectations for the firm. However, management has concerns about demand, operating profit, and competitive differentiation

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their corporate-wide operating profit guidance, and may be concerned about higher salaries and wage expenses as a result of the TCJA. Furthermore, they may be exaggerating their efforts towards environmental efficiency, and may lack confidence in the sustainability of improvements in the U.S. industrial economy. Moreover, they may lack confidence in the sustainability of strong performance in FedEx Freight, and may be exaggerating their competitive differentiation as a result of their long-term investments
Underlying
FedEx Corporation

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce and business services through companies under the FedEx brand. These companies are included in the following segments: Federal Express Corporation, including TNT Express B.V., is an express transportation company; FedEx Ground Package System, Inc., which is a provider of small-package ground delivery services; FedEx Freight Corporation, which is a provider of less-than-truckload freight services; and FedEx Corporate Services, Inc., which provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collections services, and certain back-office functions.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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