Report
Valens Research

FDX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 03

FedEx Corporation (FDX) currently trades near historical and corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 21.2x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to stabilize near current levels, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to recover to 6% by 2022, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $277, representing approximately 22% equity upside for the firm.

However, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about guidance, cost headwinds, and facility upgrades.
Underlying
FedEx Corporation

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce and business services through companies under the FedEx brand. These companies are included in the following segments: Federal Express Corporation, including TNT Express B.V., is an express transportation company; FedEx Ground Package System, Inc., which is a provider of small-package ground delivery services; FedEx Freight Corporation, which is a provider of less-than-truckload freight services; and FedEx Corporate Services, Inc., which provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collections services, and certain back-office functions.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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