FND - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 10 15
Floor & Decor Holdings (FND:USA) currently trades above corporate averages and at a historical high relative to Uniform earnings, with a 41.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to historical highs, accompanied by 12% Uniform asset growth.
However, if sustainable in perpetuity, analyst expectations for 13% Uniform ROA and 37% Uniform asset growth imply a stock price of about $160, representing 25% equity upside for the firm.
That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth, margins, supply chain challenges, and talent.
Floor & Decor Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a specialty retailer of hard surface flooring and related accessories. The company's customers include installers and commercial businesses, Do It Yourself customers and customers who buy the products for installation. The company's primary product categories include Tile, Wood, Laminate/Luxury Vinyl Plank, Natural Stone, Decorative Accessories, and Installation Materials and Tools. In addition to its stores, the company's website FloorandDecor.com showcases its products, provides informational training and design ideas and has its products available for sale, which a customer can pick up in store or have delivered.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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