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Valens Research

FOXA - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 03 16

Fox Corporation (FOXA) currently trades below corporate, but near historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 10.2x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fall to 19% in 2026, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to slightly fade to 43% by 2023, accompanied by 2% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $88, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about sports and content.
Underlying
Fox Corporation Class A

Fox is a news, sports and entertainment company. The company has three segments: Cable Network Programming, which consists of the production and licensing of news and sports content distributed primarily through cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators and telecommunication companies and online multi-channel video programming distributors; Television, which consists of the acquisition, marketing and distribution of broadcast network programming nationally under the FOX brand and the operation of several broadcast television stations; and Other, Corporate and Eliminations, which consists of corporate overhead costs, intracompany eliminations and the FOX Studios lot.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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