Report
Valens Research

FTDR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 05 29

frontdoor, inc. (FTDR:USA) currently trades near corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 23.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about their Candu expansion, leverage, and direct-to-consumer marketing strategies

Specifically, management may have concerns about macro environment uncertainty, and they may be exaggerating their ability to manage their leverage and generate sufficient cash to service debt obligations. In addition, they may lack confidence in their ability to expand Candu to new geographies, execute national and local direct-to-consumer marketing strategies, and meet growth expectations in their direct-to-consumer and renewal channels. Moreover, they may be concerned about available technology acquisition opportunities and their reduction in planned new hires in critical positions, and they may be exaggerating their cost reduction opportunitie
Underlying
Frontdoor Inc.

Frontdoor is a provider of home service plans in the U.S., and operates under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard and Landmark brands. The company's home service plans help customers protect and maintain their homes, typically their asset, from costly and unplanned breakdowns of essential home systems and appliances. The company's home service plans cover the repair or replacement of main components of household systems and appliances, including electrical, plumbing, central heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, water heaters, refrigerators, dishwashers and ranges/ovens/cooktops. The company serves customers across various states and the District of Columbia.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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