Report
Valens Research

FRT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 02 03

Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT:USA) currently trades near historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 65.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about adjusted EPS growth, first-ring suburb property demand, and occupancy rate declines

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain adjusted EPS and revenue growth and mitigate occupancy rate declines. Furthermore, they may be exaggerating the post-COVID demand for first-ring suburb properties and the strength of the Anchor system
Underlying
Federal Realty Investment Trust

Federal Realty Investment Trust is an equity real estate investment trust that focuses on the ownership, management, and redevelopment of retail and mixed-use properties located primarily in communities in selected metropolitan markets in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States, as well as in California and South Florida. The company owns or has a majority interest in community and neighborhood shopping centers and mixed-use properties which are operated as predominantly retail real estate projects.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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