Report
Valens Research

HGV - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 01 24

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 16.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, but management generated an excitement marker when talking about their data systems, and they are confident about their interest rates and contract sales.

Specifically, management generated an excitement marker when saying they are working to improve their data and systems. In addition, they are confident their income interest rate increased and that their lower rates on bond issuances reflect the credit market's appreciation of their assets' fundamental strength. Moreover, they are confident they will see momentum build in their contract sales and that it is important for them to be smart about their capital deployment.
Underlying
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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