Report
Valens Research

HGV - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 01 28

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 34.2x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about free cash flow generation, EBITDA growth, and travel demand

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to achieve positive adjusted free cash flow in 2021 and sustain their finance and resort and club segments' EBITDA growth. In addition, they may be exaggerating their ample liquidity position and the resiliency of their property owners. Management may also have concerns about the sustainability of their current sales mix and the pace of travel recovery, and they may be overstating the club and resort segment's contribution to the company's overall stability
Underlying
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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