Report
Valens Research

HGV - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 27

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) currently trades near corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 21.2x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve to 8%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Similarly, analysts expect Uniform ROA to also expand to 8% in 2022, accompanied by 78% Uniform asset growth, driven by the Diamond acquisition.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply significant equity upside. That said, the firm's projected asset growth is largely driven by acquisitions, indicating this level of growth is likely unsustainable in the long run.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about the Diamond acquisition, growth opportunities and margins.
Underlying
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

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