Report
Valens Research

HPQ - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 02 16

HP Inc. (HPQ:USA) currently trades near corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 19.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, markets have somewhat bearish expectations for the firm, but management is confident about pricing discipline, margin expansion, and shareholder returns

Specifically, management is confident operating margin declines in print were partially offset by supplies volume and pricing discipline. In addition, they are confident Q1 2021 margins will range from 3.5%-5.5% levels, partially driven by pricing discipline, and that they returned a total of $4.1 billion to shareholders in 2020
Underlying
HP Inc.

HP is a provider of personal computing and other access devices, imaging and printing products, and related technologies, solutions and services. The company's segments are: Personal Systems, which provides commercial and consumer desktop and notebook personal computers, workstations, thin clients, commercial mobility devices, retail point-of-sale systems, displays and other related accessories, software, support and services; Printing, which provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions and services, as well as scanning devices; and Corporate Investments, which includes HP Labs and certain business incubation and investment projects.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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