Report
Valens Research

IBM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 11 13

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM:USA) currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 13.6x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. Moreover, management has concerns about their current portfolio mix, foreign exchange losses, and Systems segment growth

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to achieve mid to high single-digit revenue growth in H2, and may have concerns about their portfolio mix. Additionally, they may lack confidence in their ability to offset currency headwinds, and may be concerned about the upcoming product launch cycle. Moreover, they may be concerned about the impact that foreign exchange losses have had on how they allocate capital and invest. Also, they may have concerns about their portfolio balance after expanding their strategic imperatives business, and may lack confidence in their ability to optimize their portfolio. Finally, they may be downplaying concerns about their poor Technology Support Services performance, and may lack confidence in their ability to maintain Systems segment growth going forward
Underlying
International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines provides integrated solutions and products that utilize data, information technology, capability in industries and business processes. The company has five segments: Cloud and Cognitive Software, which provides a range of software offerings; Global Business Services, which provides consulting, systems integration, application management and business process outsourcing services; Global Technology Services, which provides project services, managed and outsourcing services, cloud-delivered services, and technical and IT support services; Systems, which provides technology and service; and Global Financing, which provides client financing, among others.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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