Report
Valens Research

IBM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 05 02

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 13.7x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. Moreover, management has concerns about enterprise app and cloud sales growth, operating efficiencies, and their cloud platforms.

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to optimize GTS performance by exiting lower-value content, drive productivity in the business, and sustain next-gen enterprise app and cloud revenue growth. In addition, they may be exaggerating operating efficiencies, revenue realization momentum, and tax benefits from their audit settlement. Also, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain quarterly growth, mitigate large-item growth headwinds, and integrate hybrid cloud management software with data and AI platforms. Additionally, they may be concerned about the sustainability of Linux growth, cloud and hybrid cloud development, and their cash balance.
Underlying
International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines provides integrated solutions and products that utilize data, information technology, capability in industries and business processes. The company has five segments: Cloud and Cognitive Software, which provides a range of software offerings; Global Business Services, which provides consulting, systems integration, application management and business process outsourcing services; Global Technology Services, which provides project services, managed and outsourcing services, cloud-delivered services, and technical and IT support services; Systems, which provides technology and service; and Global Financing, which provides client financing, among others.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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