Report
Valens Research

ICE - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 02 02

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) currently trades above corporate and recent historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 28.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 69%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to decline to 52% in 2022, accompanied by 10% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $114, representing approximately 10% equity downside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about mortgage origination, technology advancements, and growth.
Underlying
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

Intercontinental Exchange is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global operator of regulated exchanges, clearing houses and listings venues, and a provider of data services for commodity, financial, fixed income and equity markets. The company operates regulated marketplaces for listing, trading and clearing an array of derivatives contracts and securities across primary asset classes, including metals, equities, bonds and currencies, and also provides mortgage and technology services. In addition, the company provides data services to support the trading, investment, risk management and connectivity needs of customers. The company has two segments: Trading and Clearing and Data and Listings.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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