INTU - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 07 06
Intuit Inc. (INTU:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 51.9x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about revenue growth, their QuickBooks Online platform, and attracting new customersSpecifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain double-digit consumer tax revenue growth, maintain high retention rates within TurboTax, and improve TurboTax Live's new customer growth rate. Furthermore, they may be concerned about consumer willingness to convert to digital platforms, and they may lack confidence in their ability to fully service self-employed customers and continue attracting new customers and partners to their platform. Additionally, management may be exaggerating the resiliency of their QuickBooks Online (QBO) platform and the progress of their QuickBooks Cash initiatives
Intuit helps consumers, small businesses, and the self-employed prosper by delivering financial management and compliance products and services. The company also provides tax products to accounting personnels, who are main partners that help the company serves small business customers. The company organizes its businesses into three reportable segments: Small Business and Self-Employed, which provides QuickBooks financial management solutions to solve financial and compliance problems; Consumer, which includes TurboTax products and services to prepare and file income tax returns; and Strategic Partner, which includes professional tax offerings and serve professional accountants in United States and Canada.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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