Report
Valens Research

INTU - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 24

Intuit (INTU) currently trades above corporate averages and at a historical high relative to Uniform earnings, with a 52.3x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach a record high of 92%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to compress to 40% in 2023, accompanied by 12% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $319, representing significant equity downside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about products, revenue growth, and ESG.
Underlying
Intuit Inc.

Intuit helps consumers, small businesses, and the self-employed prosper by delivering financial management and compliance products and services. The company also provides tax products to accounting personnels, who are main partners that help the company serves small business customers. The company organizes its businesses into three reportable segments: Small Business and Self-Employed, which provides QuickBooks financial management solutions to solve financial and compliance problems; Consumer, which includes TurboTax products and services to prepare and file income tax returns; and Strategic Partner, which includes professional tax offerings and serve professional accountants in United States and Canada.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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