Report
Valens Research

LPI - Valens Credit Report - 2022 11 28

Credit markets are grossly overstating credit risk with a YTW of 10.180% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 6.310% and an Intrinsic CDS of 234bps. Furthermore, Moody's is materially overstating LPI's fundamental credit risk with its B2 credit rating seven notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for credit holders. LPI's compensation metrics should incentivize management to focus on all three value drivers: revenue, margins, and asset utilization, which should lead to Uniform ROA improvement and increased cash flows available for servicing debt. Moreover, most management members are material owners of LPI equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company.
Underlying
Laredo Petroleum Inc.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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