Report
Valens Research

LGIH - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 19

LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) currently trades below corporate but near historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 9.7x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline to all-time lows of 7%, accompanied by 9% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to only fade to 19% by 2022, accompanied by 23% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $725, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm. That said, as a homebuilder operating in a highly cyclical industry, the firm is unlikely to sustain cycle peak performance going forward.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about their business model and guidance.
Underlying
LGI Homes Inc.

LGI Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, and Nevada. The company's product offerings include entry-level homes, including both detached homes and townhomes, and move-up homes sold, which are sold under its LGI Homes brand, and its luxury series homes, which are sold under its Terrata Homes brand. The company's homebuilding operations are organized and managed by seven divisions: West, Northwest, Central, Midwest, Florida, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

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