Report
Valens Research

LKQ - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 09 22

LKQ Corporation (LKQ:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 15.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about revenue growth, cash flow generation, and financing and sales costs.

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain adjusted EPS and Specialty segment revenue growth, continue generating outstanding cash flow, and secure more car park-related acquisitions. In addition, they may have concerns about fluctuations in regional revenue and margin performance, particularly in Europe, and they may be overstating the positive impact of supply disruptions on pricing and the extent to which utilizing their revolving credit facility will lower borrowing costs. Finally, they may have concerns about higher COGS, their share repurchasing strategy, and the pandemic's impact on organic growth.
Underlying
LKQ Corporation

LKQ is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides alternative vehicle collision replacement products and alternative vehicle mechanical replacement products. The company is also a provider of alternative vehicle replacement and maintenance products in the United Kingdom, Germany, the Benelux region (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg), Italy, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, and other European countries. In addition to its wholesale operations, the company operates self service retail facilities across the United States that sell recycled automotive products from end-of-life-vehicles. The company is also a distributor of specialty vehicle aftermarket equipment and accessories.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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