Report
Valens Research

LMT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 12 23

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT:USA) currently trades below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may have concerns about shrinking F-35 demand, the Space segment, and 2021 sales

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet 2021 sales guidance, continue improving liquidity, and sustain combat air and air mobility margin growth. In addition, they may have concerns about shrinking F-35 demand and the impact of delayed stimulus funding. Moreover, management may lack confidence in their ability to grow the Space segment and assist in the Future Vertical Lift program. Finally, they may be exaggerating the potential of their hypersonic tech pipeline
Underlying
Lockheed Martin Corporation

Lockheed Martin is a security and aerospace company. The company has four segments: Aeronautics, which is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, sustainment, support and upgrade of military aircraft; Missiles and Fire Control, which provides air and missile defense systems, logistics, fire control systems, and mission operations support; Rotary and Mission Systems, which provides design, manufacture, service and support for military and commercial helicopters, radar systems, and simulation and training services; Space, which researches, designs, develops, engineers and produces satellites, space transportation systems, and strategic, strike, and defensive systems.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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