Report
Valens Research

MAR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 02 03

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 26.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, and management is confident about their room signings, luxury resort portfolio, and international expansion.

Specifically, management is confident that 2019 room signings are approaching record levels, they expect adjusted EBITDA will increase to $3.57bn, and that their group sales are stronger than more transient business categories. In addition, they are confident about the quality of their lifestyle, luxury, and resort portfolio and that they expect unit growth outside the US to be faster than inside the US. Furthermore, management is confident that outbound room nights sold to mainland Chinese travelers increased by 9%, with particular strength across South Korean and Malaysian destinations.
Underlying
Marriott International Inc. Class A

Marriott International is a worldwide operator, franchisor, and licensor of hotel, residential and timeshare properties under various brand names at different price and service points. The company has operations in the following reportable business segments: North American Full-Service, which includes the company's Luxury and Premium properties located in United States and Canada; North American Limited-Service, which includes the company's Select properties located in United States and Canada; and Asia Pacific, which includes all properties in the company's Asia Pacific region.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch