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Valens Research

MA - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 04 17

Mastercard Incorporated (MA:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 33.2x Uniform P/E, suggesting bullish expectations for the firm. However, management may be concerned about growth, market share, and their acquisitions

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to mitigate rebates and incentives growth, drive organic revenue growth from new acquisitions, and continue to gain market share. In addition, they may be exaggerating the potential of their RiskRecon and Vocalink services and the payment capabilities of Mastercard Track. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain card growth, achieve breakeven across their acquisitions, and properly handle consumer data in their increasingly digital lives. Finally, they may lack confidence in their ability to manage expenses, and they may be concerned about continued weakness in the Latin America and Caribbean regio
Underlying
MASTERCARD INCORPORATED

Mastercard is a technology company in the global payments industry. The company's solutions enabling consumers to use electronic forms of payment instead of cash and checks. The company provides a range of payment solutions and services using its brands, including Mastercard?, Maestro? and Cirrus?. The company is a multi-rail network that provides customers one partner to turn to for their domestic and cross-border payment needs. The company has additional payment capabilities that include automated clearing house transactions. The company also provides offerings such as cyber and intelligence products, information and analytics services, consulting, loyalty and reward programs and processing.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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