Report
Valens Research

MA - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 06 06

Mastercard (MA) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 33.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand from 79% in 2021 to 122% in 2026, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Similarly, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 95% in 2023, accompanied by 6% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $291, representing approximately 19% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about payment volume, M&A activity, and partnerships.
Underlying
MASTERCARD INCORPORATED

Mastercard is a technology company in the global payments industry. The company's solutions enabling consumers to use electronic forms of payment instead of cash and checks. The company provides a range of payment solutions and services using its brands, including Mastercard?, Maestro? and Cirrus?. The company is a multi-rail network that provides customers one partner to turn to for their domestic and cross-border payment needs. The company has additional payment capabilities that include automated clearing house transactions. The company also provides offerings such as cyber and intelligence products, information and analytics services, consulting, loyalty and reward programs and processing.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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