Report
Valens Research

MNI - Valens Credit Report - 2018 01 16

- CDS markets and cash bond markets are both grossly understating credit risk, with a CDS of 927bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 1,493bps, and a cash bond YTW of 7.920% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 17.260%. However, Moody's is materially overstating MNI's fundamental credit risk, with their Caa1 credit rating seven notches lower than Valens' XO (Baa3) rating - Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that MNI's compensation framework is mostly favorable for debt holders as it aligns them to improve margins, asset utilization, and to a lesser extent, growth. This should lead to a higher Uniform ROA and improved cash flows available for servicing debt obligations over time. Additionally, management has low change-in-control compensation indicating that they are not incentivized to accept a buyout or seek a sale of the company, reducing event risk for creditors - MNI currently trades near historical lows, with a 1.1x UAFRS-based (Uniform) P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to remain at 8% levels going forward, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset shrinkage. Given that valuations are taking into account the market's inaccurate perception of the firm's credit risk, MNI could see material credit-driven equity downside if credit spreads tighten, even without fundamental changes

Underlying
McClatchy Company Class A

The McClatchy is a provider of independent local journalism as well as selected national news coverage through its Washington D.C. based bureau. The company is engaged in providing content, either editorial or through advertising. The company's media companies and its digital media agency, excelerate?, distribute content, including video products, through its owned and operated websites and mobile applications, third-party search and ad exchanges, social media platforms, electronic editions of its daily newspapers (e-editions) as well as its printed daily newspapers. The company also prints selected niche publications and community newspapers, as well as provides other print and digital direct marketing services.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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