Report
Valens Research

MDR - Valens Credit Report - 2018 03 28

- Cash bond markets are overstating MDR's credit risk with a cash bond YTW of 6.548% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.388%, and an Intrinsic CDS of 298bps. Furthermore, Moody's is materially overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with their high-yield B1 rating six notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) rating - Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights positive signals for debt holders. MDR's compensation metrics should drive management to focus on all three value drivers, leading to Uniform ROA expansion and increased cash flows available for servicing debt obligations - Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q4 2017 earnings call (2/21) highlights that management is confident that their AEA efforts are starting to pay off - MDR currently trades near historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.4x Uniform P/B. As markets are pricing in expectations for declining profitability, fundamental driven equity upside is warranted should the firm simply maintain Uniform ROA at current levels

Underlying
McDermott International Inc.

McDermott International is a provider of integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation, front-end engineering and design and module fabrication services for upstream field developments worldwide. The company delivers fixed and floating production facilities, pipeline installations and subsea systems from concept to commissioning for offshore and subsea oil and gas projects. The company supports its activities with project management and procurement services, while utilizing its capabilities in both shallow water and deepwater construction. The company operates across the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Australia.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
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