Report
Valens Research

MPW - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 12 06

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW) currently trades below corporate but above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with an 18.8x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade to 7%, accompanied by 9% Uniform asset growth.

However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to expand to 11% in 2022, accompanied by immaterial Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $32, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about liquidity, COVID recovery, and their Steward transactions.
Underlying
Medical Properties Trust Inc.

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised real estate investment trust. The company invests in: General acute care, which provides inpatient care for the treatment of acute conditions and manifestations of chronic conditions; Inpatient rehabilitation hospitals, which provides rehabilitation to patients with various neurological, musculoskeletal orthopedic, and other medical conditions following stabilization of their acute medical issues; and long-term acute care hospitals, a specialty-care hospital designed for patients with serious medical problems that require intense, special treatment for an extended period of time, sometimes requiring a hospital stay averaging in excess of three weeks.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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