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Valens Research

MGM - Valens Credit Report - 2021 03 11

Cash bond markets are materially overstating credit risk, with a YTW of 3.667%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 1.557%, and CDS markets are overstating credit risk, with a CDS of 195bps, relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 92bps

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for debt holders. MGM's compensation framework should focus management on top-line growth and margins, which should drive Uniform ROA expansion. Additionally, management members have low change-in-control compensation, indicating that they may not be incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a takeover of the firm, limiting event risk. Furthermore, management members are material owners of MGM equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they may be well-aligned with shareholders for long-term value creation.

Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q3 2020 earnings call (10/29) highlights that management is confident their confirmed contracts have increased by over a hundred percent
Underlying
MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts across the United States and in Macau. The company's segments include: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, which consists of casino resorts such as Bellagio, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM; Regional Operations, which consists of casino resorts such as MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage, Gold Strike Tunica, Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park; and MGM China, which owns and operates casino resorts and the related gaming subconcession and land concessions.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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